Every commit scored for change-risk against this repo's own history, so 'elevated' means elevated here rather than on some global curve.
Needs review
137 commits sit in this repo's top risk tercile, which is 33% of the 414scored. The cut is drawn against this codebase's own history rather than a global curve, so a quiet repo still fills its top band, and here it starts at 8.7 out of 10. What pushes a commit up is size and spread together: a large change confined to one area scores below a smaller one scattered across a dozen files.
Commit categories over time, read off the subject line. Fixes carry the accent because that is the series this chart exists to show.
Began docs-led, now leaning other.
Ranked by change-risk, highest first. Priority is a tercile of this repo's own distribution, so a quiet repo still fills its top band.
| # | Commit | Author | When | Lines | Review priority | Top driver |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 7964c877open btc snapshot model bundle | Evan Kolberg | 3mo ago | +180.8K -60 | 100thElevated | more lines added than baseline |
| 2 | f941bfe6Squashed 'nautilus_pm/' content from commit 653cc0fb4 | Evan Kolberg | 6mo ago | +2.0M -0 | 100thElevated | more lines added than baseline |
| 3 | 4ac03c4eAdd Rust native loader core | Evan Kolberg | 4mo ago | +8.3K -495 | 99thElevated | more lines added than baseline |
| 4 | 32c48adaMerge #123 add Telonex workers and imbalance strategy | Evan | 4mo ago | +41.8K -2.4K | 99thElevated | more lines added than baseline |
| 5 | 8516b576Merge #119 fix: L2 book realism, Telonex/PMXT data paths, and docs refresh | Evanclaudeassisted | 4mo ago | +7.4K -11.7K | 99thElevated | more lines added than baseline |
| 6 | eb3eda8drefactor: move Nautilus extensions into local overlay | Evan Kolberg | 4mo ago | +13.6K -64 | 99thElevated | more lines added than baseline |
| 7 | 8630d7a8Refactor backtests into pinned object runners | Evan Kolberg | 5mo ago | +6.0K -3.4K | 99thElevated | more lines added than baseline |
| 8 | b34beabdRefactor prediction-market backtests and refresh docs (#6) | Evan | 5mo ago | +18.0K -588 | 99thElevated | more lines added than baseline |
| 9 | ca918a4dpublish archived private research | Evan Kolberg | 3mo ago | +5.4K -107 | 97thElevated | more lines added than baseline |
| 10 | 61c7dddbMerge #118 tighten prediction-market backtests | Evan | 4mo ago | +3.7K -3.1K | 97thElevated | more lines added than baseline |
| 11 | 9d68487eReformat codebase to line-length 100 | Evan Kolbergclaudeassisted | 4mo ago | +3.7K -1.1K | 97thElevated | more lines added than baseline |
| 12 | 15cdd645refactor: overlay Nautilus analysis and execution modules | Evan Kolberg | 4mo ago | +5.2K -1 | 97thElevated | more lines added than baseline |
| 13 | a590f177Include PMXT multi-sim sample runners | Evan Kolberg | 5mo ago | +3.4K -10 | 97thElevated | more lines added than baseline |
| 14 | 6baa2cbbFinalize adapter-first backtest architecture | Evan Kolberg | 5mo ago | +4.7K -1.9K | 97thElevated | more lines added than baseline |
| 15 | f9d93791Archive full-stack relay and switch docs to mirror-first | Evan Kolberg | 5mo ago | +5.7K -397 | 97thElevated | more lines added than baseline |
| 16 | 5aa5539dShip PMXT relay-backed backtests | Evan Kolbergclaudeassisted | 5mo ago | +3.6K -475 | 97thElevated | more lines added than baseline |
| 17 | 9e380d65feat: initial commit — prediction market backtesting engine | Evan Kolbergclaudeassisted | 6mo ago | +4.1K -0 | 97thElevated | more lines added than baseline |
| 18 | a266c5bbOptimize native data ingestion concurrency | Evan Kolberg | 4mo ago | +2.1K -622 | 95thElevated | more lines added than baseline |
| 19 | 2631b973Merge #128 add polymarket account ledger replay | Evan | 4mo ago | +3.4K -2 | 95thElevated | more lines added than baseline |
| 20 | bd844599Merge #126 settlement report fixes & add BTC 5m strategy runners | Evan | 4mo ago | +2.4K -168 | 95thElevated | more lines added than baseline |
| 21 | 8bbfb7dfMerge #124 align joint runner entrypoints | Evan | 4mo ago | +2.8K -22.1K | 95thElevated | more lines added than baseline |
| 22 | 46215e5eMerge #104 feat(telonex): add joint portfolio local workflow | Evanclaudeassisted | 4mo ago | +3.5K -101 | 95thElevated | more lines added than baseline |
| 23 | 734025d5Update tests for joint-portfolio vs independent runner split | Evan Kolbergclaudeassisted | 4mo ago | +1.4K -2.6K | 95thElevated | more lines added than baseline |
| 24 | 3c39076bscale plotting with per-sim detail and summaries | Evan Kolberg | 5mo ago | +3.0K -1.5K | 95thElevated | more lines added than baseline |
| 25 | 3d2eafe7Implement deep audit cleanup plan (#64) | Evan | 5mo ago | +2.7K -1.5K | 95thElevated | more lines added than baseline |
| 26 | 51ccb63dAdd PMXT quote-tick strategy runners and breakout guards (#10) | Evan | 5mo ago | +2.1K -51 | 95thElevated | more lines added than baseline |
| 27 | 51f5446cfeat: replace Python engine with Rust-powered backtesting core | Evan Kolbergclaudeassisted | 6mo ago | +2.0K -1.4K | 95thElevated | more lines added than baseline |
| 28 | 6635d16aAdd live sandbox plumbing | Evan Kolberg | 3mo ago | +2.4K -1.3K | 92thElevated | more lines added than baseline |
| 29 | 43d69a6cAccelerate Telonex native parquet loading | Evan Kolberg | 4mo ago | +2.0K -0 | 92thElevated | more lines added than baseline |
| 30 | bb511dd4Stage concurrent replay data loading | Evan Kolberg | 4mo ago | +1.8K -619 | 92thElevated | more lines added than baseline |
| 31 | 04bc79fbMerge #129 add telonex trades fallback for execution ticks | Evan | 4mo ago | +1.6K -195 | 92thElevated | more lines added than baseline |
| 32 | 291d5a84Merge #116 fix: backtest audit round 2 — realism and robustness | Evanclaudeassisted | 4mo ago | +2.7K -125 | 92thElevated | more lines added than baseline |
| 33 | 87f8bd33Plot per-fill Profit/Loss markers and sync worktree research updates | Evan Kolberg | 4mo ago | +1.6K -626 | 92thElevated | more lines added than baseline |
| 34 | 3ed1df05Replace ambiguous multi-sim scripts with explicit joint/independent runners | Evan Kolbergclaudeassisted | 4mo ago | +1.4K -2.1K | 92thElevated | more lines added than baseline |
| 35 | 6b80e8a4Remove platform-specific runners and consolidate data source adapters | Evan Kolbergclaudeassisted | 4mo ago | +910 -3.8K | 92thElevated | more lines added than baseline |
| 36 | ca8b8c67Add explicit joint-portfolio vs independent multi-replay modes | Evan Kolbergclaudeassisted | 4mo ago | +829 -1.3K | 92thElevated | more lines added than baseline |
| 37 | 01700806Refactor data adapters and slim PMXT mirror relay | Evan Kolberg | 5mo ago | +2.0K -2.4K | 92thElevated | more lines added than baseline |
| 38 | 27fd688ctest: add engine validity, metrics unit, and setup test suites | Evan Kolbergclaudeassisted | 6mo ago | +1.3K -62 | 92thElevated | more lines added than baseline |
| 39 | 929f3eb0feat: add front testing with live Kalshi/Polymarket WebSocket feeds | Evan Kolbergclaudeassisted | 6mo ago | +1.6K -43 | 92thElevated | more lines added than baseline |
| 40 | 14fadbfefeat: add interactive Bokeh chart with per-market price tracking | Evan Kolberg | 6mo ago | +1.8K -7 | 92thElevated | more lines added than baseline |
| 41 | 31bef953Trace cache writes through loader events | Evan Kolberg | 4mo ago | +1.0K -282 | 89thElevated | more lines added than baseline |
| 42 | 4ae31c14Merge #117 add joint portfolio notebook runners & fix total equity and sharpe charts | Evan | 4mo ago | +1.6K -64 | 89thElevated | more lines added than baseline |
| 43 | fade9b89Merge #111 fix(telonex): cache api days safely | Evan | 4mo ago | +1.0K -42 | 89thElevated | more lines added than baseline |
| 44 | 6891f4caMerge #98 Support full per-entry PMXT source ordering | Evanclaudeassisted | 4mo ago | +1.4K -326 | 89thElevated | more lines added than baseline |
| 45 | 642b7af9Move backtest framework into extension namespace | Evan Kolberg | 4mo ago | +1.3K -664 | 89thElevated | more lines added than baseline |
| 46 | 8874d737Switch PMXT local workflow to raw archive downloads | Evan Kolberg | 5mo ago | +1.4K -1.3K | 89thElevated | more lines added than baseline |
| 47 | 225e476eRoute PMXT relay hours into ClickHouse | Evan Kolberg | 5mo ago | +981 -120 | 89thElevated | more lines added than baseline |
| 48 | c8e1fcc9Execution modeling sync plus resolved late-favorite sports basket (#8) | Evan | 5mo ago | +1.0K -9 | 89thElevated | more lines added than baseline |
| 49 | be8a1659Fix RustEngine constructor compatibility; run ruff format/lint; tests passed\n\nCo-authored-by: Evan Kolberg <evankolberg@aol.com> | Evan Kolberg | 6mo ago | +1.1K -183 | 89thElevated | more lines added than baseline |
| 50 | b5b7e375feat: add gambling strategy, fix plotting layout, update tests & README | Evan Kolbergclaudeassisted | 6mo ago | +1.2K -233 | 89thElevated | more lines added than baseline |
Two views of the same model: where the cuts fall, and what commit shape lands you above them.
Every scored commit, binned on the raw 0 to 10 score rather than the percentile. Percentile ranks are uniform by construction, so that axis has no shape to draw. The dashed lines are the tercile cuts behind each row's priority pill.
The 200 most recent commits, on their own recency sample rather than the feed above: that defaults to risk-sorted, so reusing it would plot only the top tercile and call it the spread. Big and scattered is what the model penalises. Click a dot to open it.
2233admin/prediction-market-backtesting has 476 commits in its history from 2 contributors, the first of them Feb 13, 2026. In the last 90 days 152 files were touched, 587 times in total, most often telonex.py. Every commit is scored for change risk from its size, spread and the history of the files it touches.
